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PetroChina Co Ltd 0857.HK (Hong Kong)

from http://www.cnbc.com/id/21206178

PetroChina Selling Accelerates at Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway - Stake Now 5.4%

Posted By:Alex Crippen

Topics:Sudan | China | Warren Buffett

Companies:PetroChina Company Limited | Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has sold more shares from his controversial PetroChina holdings, bringing his stake to 5.4% of the stock not held by the Chinese government.

Berkshire held over 11% of the stock in July and almost 10% at the beginning of this month.

As you can see in the table below listing the total shares held at each filing, the selling is picking up speed, especially with the most recent filing. It shows an average selling rate of 80 million shares a day since the previous filing just four days earlier. (Under Hong Kong Exchange rules, not every sale has to be disclosed, just those that take the stake across a whole percentage number.)

Berkshire has disposed of almost 1.2 billion shares since July. At this rate, it looks like Buffett may be moving to liquidate the entire position.

What's driving the selling? As we've been saying all along, that's a matter of speculation since Buffett rarely explains his actions as he's taking them.

One obvious answer: taking a huge profit, roughly 600 percent since he built the stake back in 2003. PetroChina shares hit a record high last week. Currently, in U.S. trading:

PetroChina Co Ltd PTR   186.08 4.46 +2.46%

Quote | Chart | News | Profile | Add to Watchlist

[PTR 186.08 4.46 (+2.46%) ]

Another possibility, which isn't necessarily contradictory: pressure from human rights activists unhappy with China's business ties to Sudan. Reuters quotes the director of China Oil and Gas Research of CLSA as saying, "He's being pressured by the human rights activists about PetroChina's parent's involvement in Sudan. He may sell all by the end of the month."

Responding to the September 21 sale, the group Investors Against Genocide says on its web site, "With each additional sale .. we get an increasingly clear demonstration that Berkshire Hathaway is on a path to divest its holdings."

Or perhaps, as Eric Berkowitz emailed to Warren Buffett Watch, it's the comfort factor (which is also not necessarily contradictory.) "I think the bottom line is that Buffett and Charlie Munger are much more comfortable investing in terrific All-American companies with great brands and strong, long lasting fundamentals. A major investment in an overseas company represents the same unknown factor that kept them out of the technology and internet boom and bust of the late 1990s."

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http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2007-09/27/content_6799611.htm

巴菲特犯低级错误 没预测到中石油业绩持续增长

2007年09月27日 09:13:10 　来源：中国证券报

2000年中石油在香港上市之时，每股发行价格只有1.27港元，上市不久甚至还跌破了发行价，最低1.10港 元。而就是在这种情况下，巴菲特用自己的慧眼发现了中石油的价值所在，以1.10港元到1.20港元之间的价格买进11.09亿股中石油H股；随后又以 1.61港元至1.67港元不等的价格增持8.58亿股中石油H股，持股量增至23.48亿股，

成为仅次于英国石油公司的中石油第三大股东。如今7 年的时间过去了，中石油H股的股价于9月24日收盘达到14.30港元。巴菲特在中石油上的投资取得了丰厚的回报。但就是这样一位在中石油的投资中获得巨 大成功的“股神”，在中石油的股价节节上升的时候，却已经先后三次减持。

7月12日，巴菲特以每股平均价格12.441港元出售了1690万股中石油的股票，涉资约为2.1亿港元，将其持有的中石油股权比例从11.05%下调至10.96%。

8月29日，巴菲特再次大笔减持中石油，该次减持数量多达9265.8万股，每股平均价11.473港元，涉资约10.63亿港元，其对中石油的持股比例由10.16%下降至9.72%。

9月6日再度减持2800.4万股中石油(0857.HK)股份，并再次利用平邮“优势”巧妙拖延申报时间。在本次减持中，每股平均价11.47港元，涉资约3.2亿港元，巴菲特持股量由9.07%降至8.93%。

就这样巴菲特三度减持中石油，三次合计回笼资金约16亿港元。

但也就离他最近一次减持后的18天，在这短短的时间里中石油股价却上涨了 24.67%，大大高于他的投资年收益率（16%）！那么巴菲特为什么会犯这么低级的错误？因为巴菲特仅仅是三维投资者，没有跨越时间这条轴，没有预测到 中石油未来业绩的持续性增长，没有看到中石油价值严重低估：

1.巴菲特没有预测到石油价格趋势——石油是不可再生资源，未来石油价格必将新高不断！

2.巴菲特没有预测到中石油产能的爆发性增长——中石油发现的中国南堡油田储量要 远远高于原来的10亿吨(油当量)的储量。中国科学院院士、中国石油天然气股份有限公司副总裁贾承造9月22日于北京召开的中国油气论坛上透露说：“我们 预测最终南堡油田海上将探明10亿到16亿吨(油当量)的储量，加上陆上的储量，南堡油田的整个(探明)储量最终可能突破20亿吨。”

3.巴菲特没有预测到中石油作为大蓝筹回归A股势在必行。

号称“股神”的巴菲特其实并不神！

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巴菲特是价值投资型，对泡泡股不敢兴趣。

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kenneth: 从图上可以看出，巴菲特在3/10，4/10，8/10又卖出了大量的中石油，并且会清空。 有没有犯低级错误，市场自己会说明的。